A phased replanting strategy over the next three years shows us how that could impact supply over the next two decades.
by DR. MARISA L. ZANSLER
Article and photos provided by the Florida Department of Citrus
There’s an old saying that goes “if you fail to plan, you plan to fail,” but without the resources to take action, a plan doesn’t do much good. Since the discovery of citrus greening in 2005, growers and researchers have been working towards multiple sustainable solutions. You have no doubt heard of some of them via Central Florida Ag News and other news sources. A few examples include the Program for Expedited Propagation (PEP) to make greening-tolerant varieties available commercially for planting, growing Citrus Under Protective Screens (CUPS), and systemic applications of Oxytetracycline (OTC), and these are just a few.
These solutions have been researched and developed over 20 years, and now the industry seeks to expand the implementation of these and other sustainable solutions in commercial groves around the state. The plan and support needed to execute these solutions on a commercial scale must be multi-pronged and come from more than one source.
As Florida Citrus Commission (FCC) Chairman Steve Jonson said in his most recent column to growers via the Triangle, “We’re not just trying to survive— we’re going to beat back the effects of citrus greening— we’re determined to thrive.” He made this poignant statement days after the Florida Legislature reached an agreed upon plan for appropriations of spending in the 2025-26 fiscal year, which included a historic investment in the citrus industry that reaches nearly $140 million. As part of that investment, $104.5 million is designated for the Citrus Research and Field Trial (CRAFT) Foundation as well as the Citrus Research and Development Foundation (CRDF) to conduct large-scale field trials focused on grove management, treatments and therapies, disease-resistant varieties, grove design, pest and disease control and post-planting care to increase citrus production, and for research through CRDF.
To help see the forest for the trees (as they say), our department has analyzed a three-year phased-in approach to support replanting efforts that — with continued state funding and grower investment — reveals a strong economic case for stabilizing the industry and positioning it for long-term viability at a critical time.
The Three-Year Replanting Strategy
Over the course of the three years, we can project that approximately 25,625 acres with nearly 4.5 million new orange trees could be restored. The assumed establishment cost is $4,176 per acre, and the model assumes that first meaningful harvests would occur in year five.
Fast-Forward Two Decades
Full productivity is expected to be reached by year 10 at an annual output of seven million additional boxes from the funding investment.
The case study is mapped out over a full 20-year outlook, and after year 10, average annual production is estimated at 7.7 million boxes. Over the period, the resulting estimated total net block income is projected at $225.4 million to growers, and that is only from oranges meant for the juice market. Additional gains would also come from fresh oranges, grapefruit, and tangerines.
The Plan Requires a Shared Investment
This analysis assumes a focus on oranges destined for the juice market and incorporates ongoing grower expenses, such as caretaking and harvesting, which can reach nearly $2,000 per acre annually. These out-of-pocket costs demonstrate the substantial financial stake growers maintain in the long-term success of the industry.
It’s also important to note that the projection takes a conservative approach to estimating new production from replantings. Some blocks will have irrigation that supports higher-density plantings, such as 8×25 spacing (218 trees per acre), which will boost yields and returns. The projections only account for oranges grown for Florida Orange Juice, and will be expanded to include the fresh sector for all varieties. In addition, the framework accounts for grower contributions, treating the replanting effort as a shared investment between public and private capital.
When it comes to the continued fight to thrive against citrus greening and our combined efforts to increase supply of oranges for Florida Orange Juice, FCC Chairman Johnson said it best: “It will take both public [like the funds approved by the Florida Legislature] and private investment (our growers’ stake in the business) to get us there.”
Marisa L. Zansler, Ph.D. is the director of the Economic and Market Research Department of the Florida Department of Citrus, Bartow, Florida.